The Golden Age Is Over

It's been weeks since my last blog post - Lehman September - so it's high time for an update. Suffice to say, nothing in the meantime has reduced risk. Quite the opposite...

There is no way to discuss markets without discussing the 800 pound elephant in the White House. However, I have duly noticed that America's business media have done a remarkable job of assiduously ignoring what is by far the biggest risk to markets.

Trump knew full well when he took office in this second term that he would have at most two years to rob the country blind before the change of Congress which is due to take place at the start of January 2027. Which means he is now down to his last four months of looting before his epic crime spree ends. America's business elite are his key accomplices - having remained silent partners throughout this Golden Age of Corruption, which is now ending.

As of this writing, the GOP odds of winning in November are dwindling with each passing day, despite the major stock indices pinned to all time highs. Any amount of market dislocation in these next few weeks will collapse those odds to zero. And yet, the GOP is STILL betting on Trump to help them win in November:

"We are putting the president on the ballot"

Good luck.

Exorbitant Idiocy:

Which gets us to Trump's economic policies which have gone from bad to worse over these past several weeks heading into the mid-terms. Trump's main problem is that he has failed Economics 101. He is Wharton Business School's biggest failure. Trump is wholly ignorant of the fact that the U.S. is a net importer of global capital which is the other side of the ledger from the massive trade imbalance that he laments constantly. The benefit of the dollar reserve currency for these past 70 years was an unlimited credit line which was squandered on failed wars and tax cuts for the ultra-wealthy. Now Trump wants to reverse the trade deficit which is pushing bond yields inexorably higher. The whole WORLD is now dumping Treasury bonds.

It's Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's job to explain to his boss that Trump-o-nomics is a massive failure that is bankrupting the country. The combination of the trade war, the Iran oil war, and the tax cut are all imploding the bond market. Unfortunately Bessent is just another Trump stooge and therefore wholly unqualified for the job. He has totally lost the confidence of the bond market. Meanwhile, Trump's other newly installed stooge at the Fed - Kevin Warsh - faces similar prospects. He was hired to lower interest rates and now all indications are that he may be forced to raise rates in September or implode the bond market.

The Apex of Idiocracy:

Which gets us to AI.

All indications are that AI will be a key issue in this election and yet Trump is telling everyone to embrace AI.

As I have consistently said all along, AI is the most lethal scam we will see in our lifetimes. As a way of showing this, I created a mock IPO registration document (S-1) to enumerate the various KNOWN risks of AI at this latent juncture:

[Remember, this is a mock up, this is not real, however the FACTS are real and widely known]

In summary, as we enter these last TWO months prior to the mid-term election, Trump is doing less than nothing to help the GOP win in November, because he doesn't care. He is solely focused on his own enrichment, while the country is imploding. He is hellbent on bankrupting his last casino.

Which means the only thing left is for the Idiocracy to learn that they are trapped in the last Trump Casino and they are not getting out intact.

Buckle up.