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On a daily basis, Trump's constant lying is driving Democrats insane, which is exactly what Trump's MAGA base wants to see. However, Trump's constant lying is going to wipe out his base financially, and that's what ends this Roman Circus. So it's all going according to plan, from an historical standpoint. In my last blog post I asserted that the common theme of 2026 was rampant corruption on a biblical scale, which is totally unquestioned by the Idiocracy at large. However, t

There is ONE common theme that unites all of the various risks being ignored in markets right now - and that is the obscene and unprecedented level of corruption taking place in broad daylight. There has never been more grift, fraud, scams and rampant lying in our lifetimes than what we are witnessing in the Age of Trump. But the sheeple ignore all of it, because they are fully onboard with the crime spree, so long as markets keep rising. But when markets roll over and the sh

I went to the grocery store yesterday and when I checked out I thought I bought a gold bar by accident... Both CPI and PPI came in much hotter than expected this week, but nevertheless government inflation statistics are systematically understating how much costs are rising for the average family. Why? Because CPI doesn't take into account which costs are discretionary and which ones are essential goods. Food and energy are the fastest rising components of CPI and they are st

There are times when I feel that I am writing blog posts more for the archaeologists coming along later to figure out what actually buried this late stage Idiocracy, than I am writing for anyone reading this contemporaneously. This is one of those times. As always occurs during frothy rallies, my Twitter stats collapse and stock gamblers flock to whatever bullish media are willing to extrapolate record excess to infinity. Needless to say, it seems somewhat redundant to write

The mainstream media have been fully complicit in giving this Roman Circus the patina of respectability it does NOT deserve. They take every Trump lie and obfuscation at face value, which means they contradict themselves daily. The most obvious example being his claim that the war will be over "soon" - Trump's patented market manipulation claim that has kept markets at all time highs TWO MONTHs into the worst oil crisis in history. Today via the Wall Street Journal, we learn

Two months into what was originally supposed to be a two week war, fake peace talks just failed. So begins the next round of an escalating war... To recap: The U.S. and Israel have pounded Iran for the better part of two months while Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz closed. The stakes are rising on both sides, but MOSTLY the stakes are rising for the rest of the world which is now hostage to this cage match. The first round of peace talks took place two weeks ago (April 11t

This is week 7 of the war with Iran. Bulls predicted the war would be short. They were wrong. Not only is this war not short, but the war just escalated to include a double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. That said, oil experts predicted that the global economy would implode by the end of April if the Hormuz remained shut. This is the middle of April and nothing has imploded so far. So who will be right in the end? The next two weeks should be decisive. In Phase 1 there was

This is an update on the Iran war and markets at the end of the first week of the war. Picking up where we left off mid-week - having killed Iran's religious leader Trump is now demanding unconditional surrender of the Islamist regime. Therefore this coming week Iran's religious warriors will all lay down their arms and become insurance salesmen. And if you believe that, then you've been watching Faux News for too long and your brain is imploded. This is all deja vu of Operat

First, I will get the politics of this Iran fiasco out of the way before I focus on markets: This morning "Secretary of War" Pete Hegseth gave a briefing telling the American public that the U.S. is retaliating for 47 years of "one way" aggression by Iran against the United States. Nothing could be further from the truth. Iran has never attacked the U.S. on its own soil. Whereas the U.S. has attacked Iran twice just in the past year. In addition, the U.S. funded the Iraqi pro

Up until now I have been focused mainly on the AI asset crash. With this post, I will focus more on the economic consequences of AI. But first an update on the rolling asset crash. Research firms have been putting out articles recently predicting industry after industry that will be "disrupted" by AI. I call it "AI panic". It started with software but has now spread like wildfire to other sectors and stocks both within Tech and other industries. The disruption within Tech has

It's clear that we are heading for a meltdown of a biblical magnitude. When I say "clear" I mean totally unforeseen by the Terminal Idiocracy. As the chart below shows, entering the last week of February, global stocks (incl. U.S.) have been up 10 months in a row since the trade war lows in April. This is the longest monthly win streak since the Y2K lows of 2003 at the onset of the Iraq war. As of this writing, everyone KNOWS that war with Iran is inevitable and yet unlike th

It started with software stocks a few weeks ago - investor panic over the idea that AI was about to make software development companies obsolete. Then last week the selloff spread to the hyperscalers and their "existential" level of over-spending. All of their available cash flow plus additional borrowing is getting thrown at AI and markets are not happy, however they keep increasing their spending anyways. Amazon and Google were the most recent companies taken to the woodshe