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Sell In May And Go Away
Too late now... The pattern that I observed two blog posts ago is that Trump would escalate against a given country, markets would tank...
May 30, 20252 min read


Waiting For The Trump Minsky Moment
Everything Trump is doing right now violates Economics 101. It's only a matter of time before Trump finally learns economics, the hard...
May 26, 20253 min read


The Fool Or The Ones That Follow?
A very interesting thing happened this week. Over this past weekend, there were reports that Trump was looking for any way to replace...
Apr 23, 20253 min read


Secular Bear Market
First off, in order to set the table for my hypothesis of a secular bear market, let's discuss Wall Street's current S&P price predictions...
Apr 13, 20253 min read


MAD: Mutual Assured Destruction
In the lexicon of warfare, what's taking place between the U.S. and China in this trade war is the economic equivalent of self...
Apr 8, 20253 min read


Hard Landing Denial
The consistent theme of 2025 since Trump was inaugurated, has been investors in denial over the scope and scale of Trump's trade war. As...
Apr 7, 20253 min read


Black Swan Friday
As I described in my last blog post, a Black Swan trade war escalation took place this week catching both retail investors and...
Apr 4, 20253 min read


American Brexit
First off, take all predictions with a grain of salt mine, including this one. In fairness however I have been warning all along that...
Apr 3, 20255 min read


Party Like It's 1929
The exact same data points that bulls are calling bullish, I call bearish. We've reached the point at which the bull case and the bear...
Nov 24, 20243 min read


ALL IN Trump Casino
In my last blog post last Tuesday I posited that we may have seen the last rate cut for this cycle - That the combination of fiscal...
Nov 17, 20243 min read


Manias, Panics, And October Crashes
Let's recap events since last time: Over this past weekend, the Chinese Ministry of Finance held an emergency press briefing and...
Oct 15, 20242 min read


Global RISK OFF 2.0
China Lehman, Yen carry trade implosion, Armageddon in the Middle East, political civil war, weakening global economy. What to do? Buy...
Oct 1, 20243 min read
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