Category Posts

What we are witnessing is the largest SCAM in history packaged up and sold as the "Golden Age" by Trump, Wall Street, and Silicon Valley. It's a tale of two economies - one for the ultra wealthy and their existential AI bubble, and one for everyone else. Never before have we seen such a massive and lethal divergence between economic fantasy and reality. Let's begin with the fact that 2026 will be by far Wall Street and Silicon Valley's largest bonanza in history with respect

It's not a secret that the largest crashes in history all took place in October: 1929, 1987, 2008. Three weeks remain between now and the existential election, therefore, no sane money manager will be committing significant capital ahead of the election. Three weeks to go until Trump gains new life as America's first dictator, or until democracy is restored following two years of chaos. No one knows what will happen if the Republicans lose Congress - that remains a huge undef

In late 2025 Bitcoin crashed. In early 2026, gold and silver crashed. In July of this year semiconductor AI stocks crashed. Now global bonds are crashing. The only thing that hasn't crashed are the major stock market indices. AI is manipulating markets. What I mean, is that in addition to the AI market cap dominance in major indices, there is ongoing market manipulation using futures and options to keep the major indices pinned to all time highs. The goal of which is to compl

The max pain trade is listening to Trump tell the country to stop complaining about high fuel and food prices while his disastrous war drags on and he plunders the country for billions of dollars. Because he feels no pain. War lost Back in June at the Palace of Versailles in France, Trump signed a peace treaty declaring the war with Iran over. A few weeks later he violated his own agreement and went back to bombing Iran. For at least six times in the past 18 months, Trump has

It's been weeks since my last blog post - Lehman September - so it's high time for an update. Suffice to say, nothing in the meantime has reduced risk. Quite the opposite... There is no way to discuss markets without discussing the 800 pound elephant in the White House. However, I have duly noticed that America's business media have done a remarkable job of assiduously ignoring what is by far the biggest risk to markets. Trump knew full well when he took office in this second

There are many warning signs of impending collapse this year, just as there were in the summer of 2008... Rewind to the summer of 2008: In July of 2008, oil hit an all time high of $150/bbl on tensions with Iran. Bond yields were surging. A critical (presidential) election was looming. The Fed had switched from an easing bias earlier in the year to a hawkish bias due to inflation concerns. Subprime was already imploding banks left and right - New Century, Countrywide, Bear St

The rage is building day by day towards explosion. I see it in my Twitter feed, mostly political outrage from each side. It's an uneven battle however because Republicans are tasked with keeping the BIG lie that is disintegrating on a daily basis - the American Dream remains intact. Therefore the bar has to be lowered accordingly. There was a time in the U.S. when employers provided full healthcare. Now having a functioning healthcare system is deemed "communist". Pensions ar

As Trump's endless battles capture the majority of media attention, Wall Street's Enronesque AI bubble has been growing quietly in the background. Another Tech earnings season just ended and once again Wall Street extrapolated AI spending to ever greater heights. This process of constantly re-rating AI spend higher is the ONLY thing keeping the AI bubble from imploding. In the meantime, the widely ignored risks continue increasing. Make no mistake, Wall Street is making an ab

None of the record corruption we are seeing now is considered wrong, at the top. But it will ALL be deemed highly illegal at the bottom. Of that we can be certain. The sheeple specialize in relative morality - relative to the all time high. Where to begin, really: The president is OPENLY manipulating both a trade war and an Iran war to his own financial benefit. Democrats are running as socialist candidates, while limousine liberals panic and realize there is no place on Ear

Social mood is imploding as indicated by the collapse of momentum stocks in July. U.S. semiconductor stocks posted their biggest monthly decline since October 2008 which was only the beginning of a much larger decline that would last five more months. Prior to that, the biggest semiconductor decline was in early 2001 at the start of the Y2K recession. I will be the only pundit willing to say that the AI bubble is now OVER and yes the investment in data centers will continue l

An over-confident business-oriented president. Excessive markets optimism. Trade War. Red scare. Rising fascism. Rising poverty. Incipient market crash. What's not to like? Obviously today's set-up is not identical to the 1930s because society is much different now. Technology is different. The U.S. is no longer on a gold standard. All of which makes a decade of extreme deflation highly unlikely, as we already learned during the pandemic. I believe the Fed will ultimately get

Trump arrived at an unfortunate juncture for the United States. The greed addled old age home was highly susceptible to brainwashing by a profoundly corrupt white supremacist pedophile psychopath. He checked all of their boxes. At his behest they threw all of their money into the largest Tech Ponzi scheme in history, because it promised to make them wealthy at the expense of all future generations. Unfortunately, they were self-imploded at the hands of well known criminals on