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It's that time of year when Wall Street pundits gaze into their Magic 8 ball and goalseek the exact level of GDP, earnings, and stock prices for the year ahead. Personally, I will not attempt voodoo to guess the exact level of unknowable future economic and financial metrics, I will merely predict that all of Wall Street's predictions will be off by a minus sign. And that their predictions will implode before the end of January. Google Gemini: "Wall Street analysts largely pr

Prologue The economic and financial history that follows can be summarized quite succinctly as a series of ever-larger and more lethal asset bubbles arising as a consequence of free trade, imported poverty-driven deflation, fiat monetary expansion, technology obsession, and good old fashioned greed. All of which have led to inevitable disaster. At the outset I will clarify my definitions of inflation versus deflation to avoid later confusion. Since the pandemic, the global ec

2025 has gone nothing like anyone expected. The year started off strong with Trump's inauguration in January but then instead of a Golden Age of prosperity, bulls got immediately monkey hammered by the biggest trade war since 1930. Stocks rolled over in early February and declined to the bear market (SPX -20%) lows of early April. However, then aggressive bears got whiplash by an AI melt-up which continued into the end of October. November was uncharacteristically weak as AI

Because it's Thanksgiving and U.S. markets are closed for the holiday, I thought I would put together a chart book highlighting the November markets as we head into the last month of 2025. As I pointed out on Twitter, Tech stocks peaked the week of Thanksgiving in 2021, whereas this year, Tech stocks peaked at the end of October. In 2021, December was a volatile rebound month and then the wheels came off the bus in January. This year, given the recent bounce off the lows, bu

I don't know what's going to happen next week, but we know with 100% certainty that bullish speculators have been categorically destroyed. That's not a matter of speculation. Pundits are desperately trying to keep the sheeple from bolting out of the Casino as market volatility picks up with each passing day. So they tell the people that the bull trend is still intact - this is still a bull market. At the major index level perhaps, but below the surface breadth has been implod

First, an update from the last blog post... We have entered a lethal Twilight Zone between stock market rally and stock market crash. In this dubious gray zone of incipient market disintegration lives the most insidious lies that we have seen since this AI super bubble began. And the lies are large for a reason - because there is now blood in the water, hence the bagholders at large need to be convinced that this bubble is not a bubble. Or, if it is a bubble, it will continue

Entering the week of Monday November 10th, markets are bid on the belief that the end of the government shutdown is imminent. Hence there is now widespread belief that this is the beginning of the end of year Santa Rally. It's our job to ask in this largest Ponzi market of all time, what could go wrong? The health of this Potemkin economy now rests solely on this Asset Inflation (AI) bubble, because investors who are locked in their own happy AI circle jerk are spending freel

First off, an update on the AI bubble: Since my last blog post, I noted on Twitter that the people investing in this AI bubble are eagerly handing over control of the entire economy to the Tech Oligarchs. In a world in which the majority of wealth is already concentrated in the hands of a tiny minority, this AI bubble is leading to a final concentration of wealth in the hands of the few. By the end if AI is "successful", then all jobs will be commodified and the unemployment

AI is already smarter than the average human. Next stop, Chimpanzee... Where to begin... When OpenAI was founded ten years ago it was intended to be a non-profit organization scrutinizing the work of the AI industry to ensure the best outcomes for society. As has been thoroughly documented in the book Empire of AI by Karen Hao, over time OpenAI morphed from a non-profit to a partial profit to a take no prisoners porn purveyor which is where it is now. The safety concerns tha

Let me be the first and only pundit to acknowledge that the Artificial Intelligence super asset bubble is officially imploding. It's all falling apart while investors are celebrating. Reading this, GOP acolytes will assume that I blame Trump for all of the problems. I don't, I blame rampant ignorance for this collapse, putting Trump at the epicenter. He is joined by his entire economic team, financial media pundits, Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and the masses at large. Trade

Investors are aggressively positioned for rate cuts, because no one told them that rate cuts in a depression are not bullish. On Wall Street there can be no such thing as a reason to sell stocks. First off, let's start with the definitions for inflation versus deflation because people generally get hung up on these definitions based solely upon their own personal experience. By inflation I mean an economic scenario in which prices in the economy are rising faster than middle

In my last blog post I asserted that the pressure is off me now because Andrew Ross Sorkin who was formerly a writer at the WSJ and is now a morning commentator on CNBC, just asserted that this current market is reminiscent of 1929. However, what he didn't predict was when a crash would arrive and how big it would be. Which I thought was lame, and demanded further analysis. Let's start by saying that the magnitude of any crash whether it's 1929, 1987, March 2020, or even Apri