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Fortunately we don't have to pretend that the Arsenal of Democracy is any such thing anymore. That patina of civility has been shattered. The two countries Trump has already attacked in the past year are among the top four oil reserve nations, and the country with the fourth largest oil reserves (Canada) Trump has threatened to turn into the 51st state on several occasions. Next on the list we can add Greenland to the mix of resource-rich countries that Trump has threatened t

What follows is a market summary of 2025: Consumer sentiment is at a 50 year low. The jobs market is imploding at the fastest pace since 2008. NDFI shadow loans are larger than subprime. The AI Ponzi bubble has peaked. Stocks are record over-valued. Households are record long stocks. Gold is soaring on inflation concerns. BofA is on a sell signal. And yet, pundits are sanguine going into 2026. Therefore it falls on us to ask, what could go wrong? Over the past 15 years, globa

Chaos reigns. Full stop. Never before in our lifetimes have we been confronted with so much mass media confusion coming at us from every direction. Granted, you could have said the same thing for the past 20 years because the problem has only grown far more acute over time, now further weaponized by existential AI over-investment. Into this maelstrom of confusion add the Joker Trump who is master of the ludicrous over-statement and self-congratulatory hyperbole which has crea

Let's see, we are told that the AI bubble remains perfectly intact but now everyone will rotate out of over-valued AI stocks at the same time. That is Wall Street's 2026 prediction in a nutshell... "As late 2025 draws to a close, a significant recalibration is underway in global financial markets, with investors increasingly rotating capital away from the once-dominant Big Tech and Artificial Intelligence (AI) sectors." Sounds great, but who is going to buy the Big Tech stoc

It's that time of year when Wall Street pundits gaze into their Magic 8 ball and goalseek the exact level of GDP, earnings, and stock prices for the year ahead. Personally, I will not attempt voodoo to guess the exact level of unknowable future economic and financial metrics, I will merely predict that all of Wall Street's predictions will be off by a minus sign. And that their predictions will implode before the end of January. Google Gemini: "Wall Street analysts largely pr

Prologue The economic and financial history that follows can be summarized quite succinctly as a series of ever-larger and more lethal asset bubbles arising as a consequence of free trade, imported poverty-driven deflation, fiat monetary expansion, technology obsession, and good old fashioned greed. All of which have led to inevitable disaster. At the outset I will clarify my definitions of inflation versus deflation to avoid later confusion. Since the pandemic, the global ec

2025 has gone nothing like anyone expected. The year started off strong with Trump's inauguration in January but then instead of a Golden Age of prosperity, bulls got immediately monkey hammered by the biggest trade war since 1930. Stocks rolled over in early February and declined to the bear market (SPX -20%) lows of early April. However, then aggressive bears got whiplash by an AI melt-up which continued into the end of October. November was uncharacteristically weak as AI

Because it's Thanksgiving and U.S. markets are closed for the holiday, I thought I would put together a chart book highlighting the November markets as we head into the last month of 2025. As I pointed out on Twitter, Tech stocks peaked the week of Thanksgiving in 2021, whereas this year, Tech stocks peaked at the end of October. In 2021, December was a volatile rebound month and then the wheels came off the bus in January. This year, given the recent bounce off the lows, bu

I don't know what's going to happen next week, but we know with 100% certainty that bullish speculators have been categorically destroyed. That's not a matter of speculation. Pundits are desperately trying to keep the sheeple from bolting out of the Casino as market volatility picks up with each passing day. So they tell the people that the bull trend is still intact - this is still a bull market. At the major index level perhaps, but below the surface breadth has been implod

First, an update from the last blog post... We have entered a lethal Twilight Zone between stock market rally and stock market crash. In this dubious gray zone of incipient market disintegration lives the most insidious lies that we have seen since this AI super bubble began. And the lies are large for a reason - because there is now blood in the water, hence the bagholders at large need to be convinced that this bubble is not a bubble. Or, if it is a bubble, it will continue

Entering the week of Monday November 10th, markets are bid on the belief that the end of the government shutdown is imminent. Hence there is now widespread belief that this is the beginning of the end of year Santa Rally. It's our job to ask in this largest Ponzi market of all time, what could go wrong? The health of this Potemkin economy now rests solely on this Asset Inflation (AI) bubble, because investors who are locked in their own happy AI circle jerk are spending freel

First off, an update on the AI bubble: Since my last blog post, I noted on Twitter that the people investing in this AI bubble are eagerly handing over control of the entire economy to the Tech Oligarchs. In a world in which the majority of wealth is already concentrated in the hands of a tiny minority, this AI bubble is leading to a final concentration of wealth in the hands of the few. By the end if AI is "successful", then all jobs will be commodified and the unemployment