top of page
Category Posts


Hard Landing Denial
The consistent theme of 2025 since Trump was inaugurated, has been investors in denial over the scope and scale of Trump's trade war. As...
Apr 73 min read


Black Swan Friday
As I described in my last blog post, a Black Swan trade war escalation took place this week catching both retail investors and...
Apr 43 min read


American Brexit
First off, take all predictions with a grain of salt mine, including this one. In fairness however I have been warning all along that...
Apr 35 min read


The Nuclear Option
The big "Liberation Day" is only one day away now and the most recent indications are that Trump is about to reach for the nuclear trade...
Apr 14 min read


1930 Deja Vu
Exiting the first quarter, stocks are having their second worst start to a presidential term on record, the Barron's article this morning...
Mar 284 min read


The Complacency Bubble
The last major global trade war was in 1930 at the start of the Great Depression. Looking back, pundits will be widely discredited for...
Mar 243 min read


The Paradox of Thrift
"The paradox of thrift, a core concept in Keynesian economics, suggests that while individual savings are beneficial, if everyone tries...
Mar 194 min read


In Trump We Trust
There is no sign of panic in markets because investors widely assume Trump has things all under control. If they're wrong about that, the...
Mar 153 min read


The Depression Trade
News of an impending recession is spreading like wildfire on Wall Street. Over the weekend, Trump admitted there will be some "pain" in...
Mar 103 min read


An Exceptional Crash
It's been over a week since I wrote a full blog piece and my blog magically came back online, so here is an update from last time: On...
Mar 72 min read


MAGA Crash
It was all going so well, then this headline showed up last Friday: The Trump trade war is collapsing consumer sentiment: At the...
Feb 241 min read


Monetary Euthanasia
The endgame consequence of 15 years of continuous monetary bailout is that at this latent juncture, global investors have been...
Feb 182 min read
bottom of page
