November Chart Book

Because it's Thanksgiving and U.S. markets are closed for the holiday, I thought I would put together a chart book highlighting the November markets as we head into the last month of 2025.

As I pointed out on Twitter, Tech stocks peaked the week of Thanksgiving in 2021, whereas this year, Tech stocks peaked at the end of October. In 2021, December was a volatile rebound month and then the wheels came off the bus in January.

This year, given the recent bounce off the lows, bulls will have a harder time keeping this crash from accelerating in December.

S&P 500:

Constant sector rotation has kept the benchmark index near all time highs even as breadth collapsed down to April crash levels, beneath the surface (lower pane).

S&P Tech:

Higher down volume than April portends badly and Tech has lagged badly during this four day rebound.

Bitcoin

This is the first Bitcoin death cross - 50 dma (blue line) cross below 200 dma (red line) - since January 2022.

This chart confirms the timing indicated by the Cloud Tech stock chart above - about one month ahead of 2021 schedule.

S&P Financials

S&P Financials have the clearest wave count and are a warning indicator for the entire market.

Last week bond king Jeff Gundlach said that credit markets are rife with "garbage lending".

Metals and Mining stocks

A return to the origin of the rally deja vu of 2022 is quite unthinkable and yet highly likely.

IBD 50 (mid cap growth)

High octane growth stocks have been crushed and this was a dead cat bounce similar to the last one that failed at the 50 dma. And of course similar to Q1.

Biotech

As Tech implodes, Biotech, Healthcare, and Pharma stocks have been leading the market.

Biotech proves that speculation and complacency are still rampant:

EM Asia

EM Asia is deja vu of 2021 except that crash was in Q1.

The Average U.S. Stock

BofA pointed out this week that this year is shaping up to be a repeat of 2018 - exactly what I said several weeks ago: A weak Q4 that forces full Fed pivot to easing by the end of December.

Back in 2018 it took stocks imploding -20% in December to get Powell to capitulate from his hawkish stance. I think Trump will fire Powell this time around if that happens - and then all hell will break loose in credit markets, which will spread to all other assets.

In summary, bulls are facing an April retest which is likely where Trump will lose patience with Powell, followed by a pandemic level retest which will test the global central bank bailout hypothesis as advanced by BofA this week.

Buckle up.