Category Posts

On a daily basis, Trump's constant lying is driving Democrats insane, which is exactly what Trump's MAGA base wants to see. However, Trump's constant lying is going to wipe out his base financially, and that's what ends this Roman Circus. So it's all going according to plan, from an historical standpoint. In my last blog post I asserted that the common theme of 2026 was rampant corruption on a biblical scale, which is totally unquestioned by the Idiocracy at large. However, t

There is ONE common theme that unites all of the various risks being ignored in markets right now - and that is the obscene and unprecedented level of corruption taking place in broad daylight. There has never been more grift, fraud, scams and rampant lying in our lifetimes than what we are witnessing in the Age of Trump. But the sheeple ignore all of it, because they are fully onboard with the crime spree, so long as markets keep rising. But when markets roll over and the sh

In this post I am not going to discuss the status of the Iran War, Trump's other invasion ambitions beyond Iran (Cuba, Greenland, Canada), or the rampant grift and corruption taking place at levels never before seen in U.S. history. Needless to say there are those taking part in the evil. Those resisting the evil. And the vast majority of zombies who are oblivious to the risk they face in the second half of 2026: The Year of Living Dangerously. So we go straight to the market

An AI bubble in a global energy crisis. No one saw this coming. This is week 12 of the oil war. Sometimes we need to step back from the noise to regain the signal, so in this post I will recap events year to date: The year started with global markets in a risk ON mood. Wall Street's consensus was for a "run hot" global economy in which global central banks would be cutting rates to buffer the trade war demand shock. Therefore the leading sectors in January were gold, silver,

I went to the grocery store yesterday and when I checked out I thought I bought a gold bar by accident... Both CPI and PPI came in much hotter than expected this week, but nevertheless government inflation statistics are systematically understating how much costs are rising for the average family. Why? Because CPI doesn't take into account which costs are discretionary and which ones are essential goods. Food and energy are the fastest rising components of CPI and they are st

There are times when I feel that I am writing blog posts more for the archaeologists coming along later to figure out what actually buried this late stage Idiocracy, than I am writing for anyone reading this contemporaneously. This is one of those times. As always occurs during frothy rallies, my Twitter stats collapse and stock gamblers flock to whatever bullish media are willing to extrapolate record excess to infinity. Needless to say, it seems somewhat redundant to write

The mainstream media have been fully complicit in giving this Roman Circus the patina of respectability it does NOT deserve. They take every Trump lie and obfuscation at face value, which means they contradict themselves daily. The most obvious example being his claim that the war will be over "soon" - Trump's patented market manipulation claim that has kept markets at all time highs TWO MONTHs into the worst oil crisis in history. Today via the Wall Street Journal, we learn

Two months into what was originally supposed to be a two week war, fake peace talks just failed. So begins the next round of an escalating war... To recap: The U.S. and Israel have pounded Iran for the better part of two months while Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz closed. The stakes are rising on both sides, but MOSTLY the stakes are rising for the rest of the world which is now hostage to this cage match. The first round of peace talks took place two weeks ago (April 11t

The world is perfect except for the humans screwing it up. There is no cause for pessimism aside from the people around us acting irrationally because they "expect" something they won't get. Gratitude is the primary driver of happiness. These are the thoughts that keep me sane in this period of mass insanity. Unfortunately, this also means that we live in a very dangerous time in which expectations and reality are going in OPPOSITE directions. Economists are calling this the

This is week 7 of the war with Iran. Bulls predicted the war would be short. They were wrong. Not only is this war not short, but the war just escalated to include a double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. That said, oil experts predicted that the global economy would implode by the end of April if the Hormuz remained shut. This is the middle of April and nothing has imploded so far. So who will be right in the end? The next two weeks should be decisive. In Phase 1 there was

The most bizarre aspect about this era isn't just Trump's increasingly deranged mental breakdown culminating in his threat to totally destroy Iranian civilization aka. what I call Level '11' End Times; the other bizarre aspect is how easily the mainstream business media can pretend that Trump's derangement syndrome is not an ongoing market risk factor. According to today's pundits, just like the trade war last year, this totally unexpected Iran "detour" is merely a speed bump

If you told anyone thirty years ago that the U.S. deficit would be 6% of GDP, the AI bubble would be bigger than the DotCom bubble, stock valuations would be at all time high, consumer sentiment at a 50 year low, the Strait of Hormuz is shut, the U.S. is waging an ongoing trade war against the entire world, and Donald Trump was president, anyone would think that investors would be panicking. But they're not. All of that risk can be easily swept away by simply ignoring it. The