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First re-iterate the risks from the last blog post : $7 Trillion metals collapse BofA Sell signal @Max Bullish Bitcoin/Crypto collapse Rotation to recession Tech Implosion ex-AI Collapsing Economy Now we add to those risks the collapse of the leading AI stocks including Google, Sandisk, Western Digital, Seagate, KLA Tencor, Lam Research, Micron et al. As of this writing the VIX is above 20 and the Tech sector is at critical support. After hours, Amazon just raised their capex

The term "Black Swan" event was coined by Nassim Taleb in his seminal book Fooled by Randomness . The book tells the story of a novice trader who puts on a trade in a bull market that makes big money. So he puts the same trade on again, but this time with leverage. Again it works. He keeps doubling down until one day the trade explodes and he loses everything. The end. Taleb calls that a Black Swan event. I call that a Minsky Moment. Hyman Minsky had the opposite view of Tale

Due to 15 years of serial monetary bailouts, "buy and hold" has become an unquestioned religion. No amount of risk could get investors to sell. Therefore, the bull case and the bear case are now the same. Only the expected outcome is vastly different. On the institutional side, only history's biggest con man could convince so many hedge funds to onboard record risk exposure in the face of record risk... Bulls contend that Trump-o-Nomics is highly bullish and will lead to a bo

Trump landed at Davos overnight and proceeded to tell European leaders that the U.S. is a newfound nirvana and Europe is doing everything wrong. Only someone who has never stepped foot out of the U.S. could believe that - which by coincidence happens to be Trump's entire MAGA base. Business leaders in Europe agree with Trump that the U.S. is a much better place to invest because it has a far greater divergence of wealth than Europe. Far friendlier business practices, and far

Davos of course is the name of the Swiss village where the annual summit of global CEOs and ultra-wealthy elite takes place each January. It's at Davos that global "planners" - of whatever we call this imploding global economic model - assemble to plan out the year ahead. Trump was the first harbinger of global disintegration in 2016 but this second term strategy is even more disruptive to the globalized model. Ironically he is attending a confab that he is actively imploding

Fortunately we don't have to pretend that the Arsenal of Democracy is any such thing anymore. That patina of civility has been shattered. The two countries Trump has already attacked in the past year are among the top four oil reserve nations, and the country with the fourth largest oil reserves (Canada) Trump has threatened to turn into the 51st state on several occasions. Next on the list we can add Greenland to the mix of resource-rich countries that Trump has threatened t

What follows is a market summary of 2025: Consumer sentiment is at a 50 year low. The jobs market is imploding at the fastest pace since 2008. NDFI shadow loans are larger than subprime. The AI Ponzi bubble has peaked. Stocks are record over-valued. Households are record long stocks. Gold is soaring on inflation concerns. BofA is on a sell signal. And yet, pundits are sanguine going into 2026. Therefore it falls on us to ask, what could go wrong? Over the past 15 years, globa

Chaos reigns. Full stop. Never before in our lifetimes have we been confronted with so much mass media confusion coming at us from every direction. Granted, you could have said the same thing for the past 20 years because the problem has only grown far more acute over time, now further weaponized by existential AI over-investment. Into this maelstrom of confusion add the Joker Trump who is master of the ludicrous over-statement and self-congratulatory hyperbole which has crea

Let's see, we are told that the AI bubble remains perfectly intact but now everyone will rotate out of over-valued AI stocks at the same time. That is Wall Street's 2026 prediction in a nutshell... "As late 2025 draws to a close, a significant recalibration is underway in global financial markets, with investors increasingly rotating capital away from the once-dominant Big Tech and Artificial Intelligence (AI) sectors." Sounds great, but who is going to buy the Big Tech stoc

It's that time of year when Wall Street pundits gaze into their Magic 8 ball and goalseek the exact level of GDP, earnings, and stock prices for the year ahead. Personally, I will not attempt voodoo to guess the exact level of unknowable future economic and financial metrics, I will merely predict that all of Wall Street's predictions will be off by a minus sign. And that their predictions will implode before the end of January. Google Gemini: "Wall Street analysts largely pr

2025 has gone nothing like anyone expected. The year started off strong with Trump's inauguration in January but then instead of a Golden Age of prosperity, bulls got immediately monkey hammered by the biggest trade war since 1930. Stocks rolled over in early February and declined to the bear market (SPX -20%) lows of early April. However, then aggressive bears got whiplash by an AI melt-up which continued into the end of October. November was uncharacteristically weak as AI

Because it's Thanksgiving and U.S. markets are closed for the holiday, I thought I would put together a chart book highlighting the November markets as we head into the last month of 2025. As I pointed out on Twitter, Tech stocks peaked the week of Thanksgiving in 2021, whereas this year, Tech stocks peaked at the end of October. In 2021, December was a volatile rebound month and then the wheels came off the bus in January. This year, given the recent bounce off the lows, bu