The Circus Is Not Over. Yet.

The most bizarre aspect about this era isn't just Trump's increasingly deranged mental breakdown culminating in his threat to totally destroy Iranian civilization aka. what I call Level '11' End Times; the other bizarre aspect is how easily the mainstream business media can pretend that Trump's derangement syndrome is not an ongoing market risk factor.

According to today's pundits, just like the trade war last year, this totally unexpected Iran "detour" is merely a speed bump to a new all time high. Unfortunately, the economic difference from last year is that in 2025 tariffs were offset by global rate cuts. This year, consumers face the 2025 tariffs, rising oil prices, AND rate hikes all at the same time. Economically, this year is the exact opposite of last year.

From a markets perspective the difference this year is that bulls never capitulated during the Iran war, so the war is ending with the Nasdaq 2026 overbought.

Momentum Tech includes the blistering mid cap stocks that are leading the AI rally. This index/ETF is making new highs and just had the largest six day rally since the pandemic LOWs.

It's a blow-off top in Seagate, Western Digital, Sandisk, Lam Research i.e. the last AI stocks to make new highs.

As I write on the first day of the new "truce", Wall Street pundits are telling their clients that the war is over and to focus on the "fundamentals" aka. economy and profits, which are strong. But how do they know that the fundamentals are strong? They didn't see a war coming even when it took TWO full weeks to reposition an aircraft carrier to the Middle East before the war started - the whole time, Trump warned, war is coming. And when the war started, they all said it would be over quickly.

Wrong again. These people specialize in ignoring obvious risk.

Case in point, while the war was raging, the private credit bubble was imploding in the background.

But for this moment, banks are taking part in the GLOBAL short covering rally, which is giving the ILLUSION of low risk.

The entire private equity and private credit bubble is imploding because private companies have become FAR more overvalued than public companies.

The impending (June) SpaceX MEGA IPO is the sign of a massive top.

"Its valuation would be higher than any company on the S&P 500."

"SpaceX trades at roughly 130 times sales"

This is an index of public companies that own the massively overvalued private companies.

In summary, we have this GROWING Trump mental breakdown risk - what I call unhinged circus clown risk, that the business media have become expert at ignoring.

In addition, we have the KNOWN hangover economic effects from the war - the high oil prices and global central bank policy error that Wall Street analysts are not factoring into the post-war "fundamentals".

Be that as it may, the Wall Street Journal NeoCon editorial board isn't going to admit that a war THEY advocated turned out to be a TOTAL FIASCO, because that would mean they are partially to blame for it. So they just pretend that it's not a big disaster economically.

But it's a dangerous game to trust people who can't be trusted. They have their own agenda.