WARNING: FALSE PROFIT

It's not a secret that the largest crashes in history all took place in October: 1929, 1987, 2008. Three weeks remain between now and the existential election, therefore, no sane money manager will be committing significant capital ahead of the election.

Three weeks to go until Trump gains new life as America's first dictator, or until democracy is restored following two years of chaos. No one knows what will happen if the Republicans lose Congress - that remains a huge undefined risk factor for this market.

The second big risk this month is earnings season which kicks off next week with the banks. During peak earnings season, stock buybacks are curtailed which removes liquidity from the market.

The third big risk are the major central bank meetings at the end of October. The Fed usually holds rates prior to the election, but the bond market will be the final arbiter of interest rates.

The Fed is WAY behind the curve on rates:

We'll talk about bank stocks first.

Ahead of next week's earnings, regional banks are at critical support from the high of 2024. All indications are that higher interest rates are putting more borrowers at risk of default. As well as imploding the housing market and the private credit market.

We are approaching the level that spawned a bank run in 2023:

In addition to the cyclicals which are imploding due to higher rates, the Tech sector is following the quarterly earnings cycle deja vu of Q3:

This past week, AI stocks entered the third wave down, which will be the strongest part of the decline:

On the subject of collapsed breadth, this past week, the S&P 500 reached a new all time high while five week NYSE lows reached the highest level since the April 2025 market LOW.

It's a ludicrous divergence never seen before in history:

In summary, breadth has collapsed led by financial stocks, AI stocks are rolling over into third wave down, and liquidity is about to collapse ahead of earnings season and the election. And yet the stock market is at an all time high DUE to rampant investor complacency, while consumer views of "current economic conditions" is at the lowest level in history. Another record divergence.

Which means that "regime change" is imminent. What that entails is anyone's guess, but suffice to say it WILL NOT be accretive to corporate profit.

No one sees it coming, and no one sees it going.

Due to the most lying we've seen from any con man in human history.

Trump is America's False Prophet.