Regime Change

We are on the cusp of the largest policy REVERSAL in U.S. history. Investors are totally clueless...

First, step back for perspective:

Trump first took office exactly 10 years ago next week. When it was announced late in the night November 8th 2016 that he had won, the S&P futures imploded limit down - he was considered an untrustable con man at that time. However by morning, details of an impending tax cut were leaked to Wall Street and the market opened green and then exploded higher for a full year (2017). That set the tone for the years to follow, until the pandemic and Biden's four years.

Everything Trump has done these past two years since his re-election has been even more stock market friendly than it was in his first term. First came ANOTHER massive tax cut for the wealthy. Then came the trade war which was a shock at first, but corporations soon realized it was another huge gift from Donald. They all dutifully raised prices to offset the tariffs and then the Supreme Court cancelled the tariffs. Therefore the one time price increase got baked into corporate profit AND companies received a full tariff refund. Double payday from the taxpayers. The Iran War at first was also seen as a negative however the oil industry has subsequently enjoyed record profits and now fracking is viable at these prices. And then there were the various regulatory rollbacks that further enhanced corporate profits. In other words, this has been a two year non-stop boondoggle for corporations coming totally at middle class expense, in the form of higher gas prices, higher food prices, higher airfares, and higher interest rates.

The Golden Age:

Next week the signature Trump business paradigm is set to implode, the writing is on the wall. These mid-term elections will be a populist referendum on Trump's policies, and it will be a landslide rebuke heard around the world. The people who have been suffering the consequences of Trump's corporate corruption are going to vote it down resoundingly.

Democrats are set to take back the House and likely the Senate as well. Either of those is bad for Trump, both at the same time are terminal to his business-friendly paradigm. Which means that Trump at most has six more weeks to cement his legacy before he spends the remainder of his term in one congressional investigation after another.

As we approach the regime change, Trump is becoming more and more deranged by the day. It's clear that the gravity of his situation is weighing heavily on him mentally. Next week when the results are released he will likely go into full mental breakdown. At that point, he will become desperate and start escalating all of his signature conflicts with Iran on oil and with Canada on trade. In addition, he will lash out at other nations such as Cuba, in order to secure some sort of military victory for his legacy. He will blame EVERYONE else except himself and he will begin firing cabinet members left and right causing further havoc. In other words, policies that have been business friendly for two years will now spontaneously explode markets. However even now, investors are in total denial. Why? Because they were seduced by the Golden Age of Bull Shit and the tax cut and various other forms of corruption they have enjoyed during the Trump years. To the CEOs of America, Trump is their guy and they can't envision him ever letting them down. The business media are equally complicit in propagating this scam. Just like Trump, they are all profoundly corrupt.

In summary, Iran won the war, and next week the U.S. will undergo regime change.