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Up until now I have been focused mainly on the AI asset crash. With this post, I will focus more on the economic consequences of AI. But first an update on the rolling asset crash. Research firms have been putting out articles recently predicting industry after industry that will be "disrupted" by AI. I call it "AI panic". It started with software but has now spread like wildfire to other sectors and stocks both within Tech and other industries. The disruption within Tech has

The term "Black Swan" event was coined by Nassim Taleb in his seminal book Fooled by Randomness . The book tells the story of a novice trader who puts on a trade in a bull market that makes big money. So he puts the same trade on again, but this time with leverage. Again it works. He keeps doubling down until one day the trade explodes and he loses everything. The end. Taleb calls that a Black Swan event. I call that a Minsky Moment. Hyman Minsky had the opposite view of Tale

I don't know what's going to happen next week, but we know with 100% certainty that bullish speculators have been categorically destroyed. That's not a matter of speculation. Pundits are desperately trying to keep the sheeple from bolting out of the Casino as market volatility picks up with each passing day. So they tell the people that the bull trend is still intact - this is still a bull market. At the major index level perhaps, but below the surface breadth has been implod

First, an update from the last blog post... We have entered a lethal Twilight Zone between stock market rally and stock market crash. In this dubious gray zone of incipient market disintegration lives the most insidious lies that we have seen since this AI super bubble began. And the lies are large for a reason - because there is now blood in the water, hence the bagholders at large need to be convinced that this bubble is not a bubble. Or, if it is a bubble, it will continue

Entering the week of Monday November 10th, markets are bid on the belief that the end of the government shutdown is imminent. Hence there is now widespread belief that this is the beginning of the end of year Santa Rally. It's our job to ask in this largest Ponzi market of all time, what could go wrong? The health of this Potemkin economy now rests solely on this Asset Inflation (AI) bubble, because investors who are locked in their own happy AI circle jerk are spending freel

First off, an update on the AI bubble: Since my last blog post, I noted on Twitter that the people investing in this AI bubble are eagerly handing over control of the entire economy to the Tech Oligarchs. In a world in which the majority of wealth is already concentrated in the hands of a tiny minority, this AI bubble is leading to a final concentration of wealth in the hands of the few. By the end if AI is "successful", then all jobs will be commodified and the unemployment

AI is already smarter than the average human. Next stop, Chimpanzee... Where to begin... When OpenAI was founded ten years ago it was intended to be a non-profit organization scrutinizing the work of the AI industry to ensure the best outcomes for society. As has been thoroughly documented in the book Empire of AI by Karen Hao, over time OpenAI morphed from a non-profit to a partial profit to a take no prisoners porn purveyor which is where it is now. The safety concerns tha

Artificial Intelligence is bad for the economy, bad for financial markets, bad for the environment, and bad for society. Therefore it's...

We are now in a government shutdown induced data blackout in a record Tech bubble. But don't worry, be fat dumb and happy. The Fed is...

Pundits are starting to debate the AI bubble. Are we even in a bubble? Which stocks do you buy in a bubble? "Worries grow that stocks are...

All asset bubbles inevitably end badly, so people always ask me - when is inevitable? Normally September is the worst month of the year,...

The weaker the economy, the more aggressive investors become in financial markets. Why? Because central banks have trained them to...